利用相位差变化趋势的多源信号关联

针对多源信号关联难度大、关联准确率低的问题，利用同一目标平台上搭载的多个辐射源信号具有一致的动态变化趋势这一特点，提出一种利用相位差特征的多源信号关联方法。已知阵列形式和侦测点位置，通过对侦收到的多个辐射源信号进行处理，获取相位差信息并累积形成相位差变化趋势；对比提取疑似相似段，根据相似性判决策略进行有效关联。该方法能有效避免不同传感器对位置测量的误差影响，相比传统基于位置信息关联的方法，能有效提升关联准确率。仿真和实测数据分析证明了该方法的有效性，在阵列形式和侦测点位置已知的条件下该方法具有重要工程意义。     

公司诉讼风险对审计决策的影响研究——基于异常审计费用和审计意见的证据

近年来上市公司诉讼风险不断攀升，对审计师决策行为的影响日益凸显。基于这一背景，系统探讨公司诉讼风险对审计决策的影响，分别研究公司诉讼风险对审计费用决策和审计意见决策的影响，并考察在诉讼风险冲击下审计费用决策和审计意见决策间的关系,同时结合我国制度背景，研究法律环境差异性对两种决策之间关系的影响。研究发现：公司诉讼风险越高，审计师收取正向异常审计费用的概率越高，出具非标准审计意见的可能性越大；审计费用策略和审计意见策略之间存在替代关系，即审计师倾向于在出具标准审计意见时收取正向异常审计费用作为风险补偿。进一步研究表明，在外部法律环境薄弱地区，审计费用决策和审计意见决策之间的替代关系更加显著。研究结论有助于合理解释和评价审计师的决策行为，对监管机构规范审计师的行为有着一定的启示意义。     

The decision game: a serious game approach to understanding environmental risk management decisions

Abstract

Here we describe the implementation of an experimental research tool called the Decision Game that we used to collect data on household flood risk management decisions. Participants using this tool play an interactive game that involves making household decisions about place of residence and a variety of household expenditures, including spending on flood insurance and private flood risk mitigation. Participants also answer survey questions before and after playing the game; the pre-game survey collected demographic information, and the post-game survey collected information about participant experiences with flooding and flood mitigation. Online and face-to-face participants showed similar engagement with the experiment, and most participants appeared to have made deliberate and considered decisions about risk mitigation. Online study participants had similar responses to those who participated in person, although face-to-face participants seemed slightly more likely to mitigate against risk. Overall, participants in this research were younger, more educated and more likely to rent a home than the average Canadian. Serious games may be useful for augmenting existing data gathering strategies used in understanding environmental decision making, particularly for rare catastrophic events for which stated preference surveys may be less informative. Serious games allow for sharing a mixture of information with study participants, including maps, video clips, text and even immersive 3D experiences, and can be administered online to increase participation levels. Future research will consider longer duration online experiments and more immersive interaction frameworks.     

分散决策下的双渠道供应链补偿策略——基于消费者渠道选择行为

为了有效解决由于对消费者的争夺从而引发的渠道之间关于定价、服务水平、利润等方面的冲突,基于消费者渠道选择行为,构建了网络直销市场与传统零售市场需求模型和双渠道供应链利润模型,运用Stackelberg模型,在制造商与零售商实施分决策时,通过制造商对零售商实施补偿激励前后的对比,分析了消费者渠道选择行为对网络直销渠道和传统零售渠道定价、制造商与零售商利润以及供应链总利润的影响,并求得最优定价及制造商的最优补偿额度和零售商的最优销售努力水平,进行了不同情况下的双渠道供应链利润的比较分析。结果表明,无论制造商是否实施补偿激励,都应随着网络消费者比例的增加而增加其网络直销价格;零售商的零售渠道价格应根据网络消费者比例的增加先降低到一定水平后再提升。当更多的消费者选择网络直销渠道时,制造商的补偿激励水平和零售商的销售努力程度均会下降。制造商应提高其补偿水平,进而激发零售商提高销售的努力水平,并使双方利润及供应链总利润最大化。研究结果为基于消费者选择行为的供应链补偿研究提供了新方法,对双渠道的供应链补偿研究有借鉴意义。     

不完备信息系统辐射源威胁等级判定

针对不完备信息系统条件下的辐射源威胁等级判定问题，提出了一种基于改进容差关系粗糙集（ITR-RS）的不完备信息系统辐射源威胁等级判定方法。该方法将粗糙集中的不完备信息系统理论引入辐射源威胁等级判定中，并构建一套完备的决策规则提取模型。此外，利用辨识矩阵实现对属性的约简，在降低系统所需处理数据量的同时，提高了算法的实时性；在容差关系粗糙集的基础上，提出一种改进的容差关系，在属性主、客权重相结合的基础上引入阈值来划分加权阈值容差类，得到更为合理、准确的决策规则。仿真试验及分析表明，与经典RS算法相比，所提算法的威胁等级判定正确率提高了23%，可用于信息系统不完备条件下的辐射源威胁等级判定。     

跨文化背景下商业广告设计的视觉元素关注度研究——以餐饮类平面广告为例

本文以餐饮类平面广告为实验材料,研究了中国和美国被试者对平面广告中的图形、色彩、文字、编排及构图等视觉元素的关注度。本研究从文化认知理论出发,以文化认知差异为前提,探寻了东西方族群对商业广告中出现的视觉信息的不同处理方式。以商业广告中视觉设计的原则为标准,解构了平面广告设计中的视觉构成元素并进行一一比较,得出商业平面广告设计中中美两国被试者的视觉元素关注度差异。最终获取了各种视觉元素的评估结果和相对权重,形成了商业图形广告设计元素关注度的先后顺序。这一实验结果对跨文化认知心理理论在跨国广告设计中的应用有借鉴和启发作用,可以为跨国公司和设计师提供技术指导,设计出更符合消费者需求的商业广告。     

Customizing calories: How rejecting (vs. selecting) ingredients leads to lower calorie estimation and unhealthier food choices

Customization of food products has increased substantially in recent years while the desire for healthiness and an emphasis on understanding and providing calorie information continues to dynamically change the landscape of restaurant retail. The authors report four studies demonstrating that different customization routes (i.e., rejecting alternatives from a full product offering versus adding alternatives to a basic product offering) lead to systematic, but predictable, differences in consumers’ estimations of calories. In particular, this research finds that a rejection (vs. selection) customization process leads consumers to persistently estimate lower calories in the final product, which then improves evaluations of the retailer and leads to unhealthier food choices. These findings occur when consumers estimate calories of the exact same final product using the different paths to customization as well as when they create their own customized final product, while accounting for differences in the quantity and type of ingredients selected, suggesting a very general difference in estimations. This research has important implications for consumers who want to manage their weight and for firms that need to manage consumers’ health perceptions.     

Bancarization and violent attacks from guerrilla and other illegal groups in Colombia

Income shocks affect violence through the opportunity cost and rapacity effects. Existing studies focus on the impact of transitory shocks, especially commodity price innovations. This paper builds on this literature and studies the causal effect of permanent income shocks on armed conflict in Colombia. Using a rich dataset reporting all guerrilla and other armed groups' attacks by municipality between 2009 and 2014 and information on the provision of banking services, it shows that increasing bancarization leads to reductions in violence. These results have important implications for public policy in countries with a long history of violence. They suggest that promoting financial inclusion is useful for reducing conflict.     

Decision analytics mobilized with digital coaching

The context to be addressed is the digitalization of industry and industrial processes. Digitalization brings enhanced customer relationships and value‐chain integration, which are effective instruments to meet increasing competition and slimmer margins for productivity and profitability. Digitalization also brings more pronounced requirements for effective planning, problem solving and decision making in an increasingly complex and fast‐changing environment. Decision analytics will meet the challenges from the growing global competition that major industrial corporations face and will help solve the problems of big data/fast data that digitalization is generating as a by‐product. A mantra is appearing in business magazines – that powerful, intelligent systems will be effective tools for the digitalization of industrial processes – but much less attention appears to be paid to the fact that users need advanced knowledge and skills to benefit from the intelligent systems. First, an effective transfer of knowledge from developers, experts and researchers to users (including management) will be needed; second, the daily use and operations of the systems need to be supported, as automated, intelligent industrial systems are complex to operate. We look at this transfer as knowledge mobilization and will work out how the mobilization can be supported with coaching; this coaching needs to be digital, as human coaches are both scarce and too expensive to employ in large numbers.     

Cognitive flexibility and adaptive decision‐making: Evidence from a laboratory study of expert decision makers

Research Summary : How can strategic decision makers overcome inertia when dealing with change? In this article we argue that cognitive flexibility (i.e., the ability to match the type of cognitive processing with the type of problem at hand) enables decision makers to achieve significantly higher decision‐making performance. We show that superior decision‐making performance is associated with using semiautomatic Type 1 cognitive processes when faced with well‐structured problems, and more deliberative Type 2 processes when faced with ill‐structured problems. Our findings shed light on the individual‐level mechanism behind organizational adaptation and complement recent work on strategic inertia. In addition, our findings extend management studies that have stressed the relevance of cognitive flexibility for responding to the demands of increasingly open, flexible, and rapidly changing organizations. Managerial Summary : Humans are creatures of habits. We tend to prefer known courses of action over new ones. In many cases, habits are good. However, when things change in unpredictable ways, the past may not be good guidance for the future. We argue that “cognitive flexibility”—the ability of understanding when to rely on habits vs. when to explore new courses of action—enables managers to switch from a “fast” decision mode, based on habits, to a “slow,” more deliberate decision mode that facilitates the exploration of new courses of action. Managers high in cognitive flexibility reflect on the situation at hand, recognize and value diversity in viewpoints, and integrate such diversity in their own decision processes. By valuing diversity, they are more likely to overcome inertia.